SWITCHING BEHAVIOR: Modeling Disaffiliation by Republicans from the Label “Republican”

What drives disaffiliation from the political label “Republican” by those who have at one time considered themselves Republican? Modeling the behaviors surrounding critical incidents, called “Behavioral Event Modeling,” provides a framework for studying the series of events that culminate in a behavior. Results from this in-depth mapping suggest four core events precede disaffiliation from the Republican label: (1) Rejection of “Lesser of Two Evils” Argument; (2) Articulation of Loss of Hope in GOP; (3) Affiliation with a New Community, and (4) Incident of Perceived Betrayal by GOP Establishment. The findings offer insight into predicting disaffiliation from the Republican label and identify both the observable and non-observable indicators that can alert political scientists to this behavior.

Interventions_Switching Behavior Appendix
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